The global macadamia market is undergoing a transformation phase, marked by a 7.6% annual increase in new plantations, many of which are now mature and in production. However, the 2025 global harvest has turned out to be the worst in the past five years, creating tensions between supply and demand.
Production by region:
- Australia: Estimates revised downward, with expected production of 37,300 tons.
- South Africa: Also lowers its forecast to 85,166 tons.
- Kenya: In contrast, shows excellent performance, reaching 47,500 tons.
- Guatemala: Accounts for approximately 20% of the global harvest, with 12,000 tons.
- Central and East Africa: Growing regions that should be closely monitored for their future expansion potential.
International trade and tariffs:
- United States:
- 10% tariff for all origins.
- Preferential tariff of 30% for South Africa, limiting its competitiveness in this market.
- China:
- Maintains a 0% tariff for African countries, which will favor massive entry of African nuts, especially from Kenya and other emerging regions.
- Europe:
- South Africa will focus its exports on this market, given the unfavorable conditions in the U.S. and the tariff-free access to China for its African competitors.
- India:
- A free trade agreement was signed with Australia, set to take effect in January 2026. The tariff will drop from 13% to 7%, improving Australia’s competitiveness in this emerging market.
Recommendation: Given the limited supply conditions, continuous demand growth, and expected tariff changes, it is recommended to take positions to cover needs until July 2026, anticipating possible price increases and logistical tensions in key markets.
Source: NDX
