2025 US Walnut Harvest Forecast
- Growing Conditions and Quality
- In general, weather conditions have been good: mild summers, cool mornings and nights, moderate temperatures and healthy trees.
- Excellent quality is anticipated if current conditions continue, although there is a risk of adverse effects from extreme hear or rain in the period prior to harvest.
- Good walnut density is reported in the center of the state, while average levels are reported in the north.
- Estimated Production Volume
- The official estimate (California Walnut Objective Estimate) will be released between September 4 and
- Current projections place production between 000 and 735.000 tons, representing a 10-15% increase over the previous year (605.000 tons), but still below the 2020-2023 peaks.
- Some comparative calculations suggest an “average” scenario of 000–730.000 tons if a rebound pattern similar to that observed in Chile is repeated.
- Market and Prices
- Price Trend: New crop prices are expected to be lower due to higher volumen.
- Current forecarts for “in shell” Chandler Jumbo Large: between $1.10 and
$1.20/lb, which would imply a LHP (Light Halves & Pieces) slightly above $3.00/lb.
- Little to now early business activity in California to avoid losses like last year’s.
- No firm prices yet; most packers are waiting for more exact data in August – September.
- External and Global Factors
- India: A possible trade agreement (Trump–Modi) would reduce the tariff on walnuts from 100% al 30%, which would boost the demand.
- China: A slightly lower harvest and rising prices could help stabilize the global market.
- Europe: The presence of Chinese walnuts in the market is increasing, with a potential impact on competition and prices.
General conclusion
The 2025 California walnut season is projected to see a moderate recovery in volumen after the previous year’s decline, with optimal weather conditions to date and good qualtiy prospects. The market remains cautious, whith no fixed prices, pending the oficial estimate in September. Internation factors such as India and China could significantly influence demand and Price stabilization.
